The Steelers' 2025 season ended in January. Now it's March, and the team taking the field in September will look completely different. Free agency opens March 9, and for fans, the decisions made over the next month will shape betting value for the entire 2026 season. Here are five moves that will shift the odds.
1. Will
Aaron Rodgers play another season?
Rodgers is
42 and hasn't said if he'll play another year. If he comes back, the Steelers
stay competitive with bookmakers predicting around nine or 10 wins. If he
retires, they will scramble to sign Kirk Cousins or Joe Flacco instead – but neither
is as good as Rodgers.
Rodgers'
return keeps the team's chances stable. His retirement would cause betting odds
to drop quickly. This creates early opportunities for bettors before everyone
else reacts. Watch for changes to Steelers season win predictions and
divisional title odds - they'll move fast once Rodgers announces his decision.
2.
Keeping Kenneth Gainwell
Nobody
expected Gainwell to be Pittsburgh's best attacking player in 2025, but he ran
for 537 yards and made 73 catches. He becomes a free agent on March 11, and his
versatility fits the coach's style perfectly. Losing him without a replacement
would make the team easier to defend against, especially early in the season.
Gainwell
staying keeps the team's scoring predictions realistic. If he leaves and they
don't replace him well, betting on lower scores in September starts looking
like the smart play. Watch how the team performs against the spread in their
first few games.
3. The
March 13 Jalen Ramsey deadline
Jalen Ramsey
is owed a $2M bonus on March 13, when another $3.5M becomes guaranteed money.
The Steelers must decide if they're keeping the 31-year-old defender at his
$19.5M salary or releasing him to save $8.5M.
Most experts
think he'll stay and play his best position. But if he's released without a
replacement, the defence gets weaker in tight matches. Defences that can't
finish close games hurt your betting slips. If Ramsey leaves, avoid betting on
Pittsburgh to win by specific margins in divisional rivalry matches where games
are usually close.
4.
Replacing Isaac Seumalo on the offensive line
Seumalo was
selected for the Pro Bowl in 2024 and was key to protecting the quarterback. He
becomes a free agent March 11, and if he leaves, the Steelers face a learning
curve with his replacement. Keeping the same offensive line matters, especially
when facing the division's best pass rushers like Myles Garrett.
A weaker offensive line doesn't show up in preseason hype, but it matters when you're betting on September road matches. Early-season bets on lower scores look better if Seumalo leaves without a quality replacement.
5.
Signing a second wide receiver before the draft
DK Metcalf
is under contract, but the Steelers desperately need another quality
pass-catcher. Waiting until the April draft is risky when free agency could
solve it now. Names like Tyler Lockett or Christian Kirk might be available,
and Pittsburgh has the money to spend.
Signing a
proven receiver by mid-March transforms the attack overnight and opens up the
passing game. If the Steelers add a quality receiver in free agency, their
predicted wins and division odds will both jump immediately.
What it
means
Free agency
isn't just about filling positions - it's about building a team that beats the
bookmakers' predictions when the season starts in September. The Steelers have
$45M to spend and get this right, but March decisions matter more than April
ones.
Rodgers
returning, Gainwell staying, Ramsey in his best role, Seumalo re-signed, and a
veteran receiver added would create a 10-win team. Miss on two or three of
those, then you're looking at 8-9 wins and another fight for a playoff wildcard
spot.
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