Iran’s World Cup participation under threat: who would replace them?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is only a few months away, and one of the biggest stories heading into the tournament has nothing to do with football. Iran's participation in the competition has been thrown into serious doubt following a dramatic escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Iran has long had a difficult relationship with the United States, and those tensions have only deepened in recent times.

Given that the World Cup is being co-hosted by the United States alongside Canada and Mexico, with all three of Iran's group stage matches scheduled to be played on American soil, there is now very real and growing speculation about whether Iran will participate at all. So, what will happen if they boycott or are expelled from this year’s tournament?

 

How Iran qualified

Iran worked hard to earn their place at this tournament. They qualified in March 2025 after a tense 2-2 draw with Uzbekistan, with star striker Mehdi Taremi scoring both goals, including a late equaliser that secured the point they needed. It would have been their fourth consecutive World Cup appearance, a remarkable achievement for a country with a passionate football culture and millions of dedicated supporters.

 

What FIFA would do

FIFA has said it is monitoring the situation closely but has not yet taken any formal action. Under FIFA regulations, any team that withdraws from the 2026 World Cup faces fines of at least 500,000 Swiss francs (£480,000).

As a precaution, FIFA's statutes state that should Iran officially withdraw, a replacement team from Asia would be selected to maintain the continent's allocated quota and preserve the integrity of the tournament draw. The schedule would remain unchanged, with the replacement team simply stepping into Iran's spot in Group G to face Belgium, New Zealand, and Egypt.

 

Who could take Iran’s place?

The two most likely candidates to replace Iran are Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, and how things play out depends largely on the result of the intercontinental playoff scheduled for the end of March. Iraq are currently set to face either Suriname or Bolivia in that playoff, with the winner earning a place at the World Cup.

If Iraq win their playoff, they would qualify for the World Cup in their own right. In that situation, Iraq would take the place that has already been allocated to the playoff winner, and would go into the dedicated Group I. Iran’s group would still have a vacant space if they were removed. In that case, FIFA would need to fill that empty position separately.

Because Iraq would already have qualified through the playoffs, the next highest-placed eligible team from that qualifying section would likely be considered. That team would be the UAE, as they finished directly behind Iraq.

However, if Iraq were to lose their playoff, they would be the next best Asian team to fill the spot, and go straight into Group G, leaving the UAE out of contention.

Another possible outcome is that FIFA opt to promote Iraq directly into Iran’s Group G if a decision on Iran’s participation comes before the playoffs are completed. In that case, Iraq would effectively take Iran’s spot in Group G, and the UAE would move into the final playoff position to contest the inter-confederation playoff instead. This would depend on the timing and nature of FIFA’s decision about Iran’s participation.